ERS analyzes the current index level for food, examines changes in the CPI for food, and constructs forecasts of the CPI for food for the next 12–18 months. Time-Series Methods for Forecasting and Modeling Uncertainty in the Food Price OutlookĪt ERS, work on the CPI for food consists of several activities. NOTE: The Food Price Outlook is being revised based on the methodology documented in the following report. This report provides a detailed outline of ERS's forecasting methodology, along with measures to test the precision of the estimates (May 2015). How USDA Forecasts Retail Food Price Inflation See ERS's report on price forecasting methodology: ERS's monthly update is usually released on the 25th of the month however, if the 25th falls on a weekend or a holiday, the monthly update will be published on either the 23rd or 24th. While the all-items CPI measures the price changes for all consumer goods and services, including food, the CPI for food measures the changes in the retail prices of food items only. The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative market basket of consumer goods and services. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food is a component of the all-items CPI.

Outlook 2015 download